Fall 2026 DFW Market Update: Where Things Actually Stand
Fall is when the DFW real estate market usually starts settling into its real rhythm. The spring and summer rush is winding down, and we're getting a clearer picture of where prices, inventory, and buyer leverage actually stand heading into the final months of the year. And right now, the story isn't that the market is crashing — or booming. It's stabilizing.
The Numbers Right Now
| Metric | Current Reading | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|
| Median sold price (DFW single-family) | ~$405,000 | Down about 1.7% |
| Active inventory | ~37,200 listings | Down about 4.7% |
| Median days on market | 62 days | Elevated vs. last year |
| Months of supply | ~5 | Near a balanced market |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 6.71% (as of Sept 3) | Up from 6.50% a year ago |
DFW remains the second-most expensive major metro in Texas, behind only Austin — but the runaway price growth of 2020–2022 is firmly in the rearview. Appreciation has slowed to the low single digits across most submarkets.
Here's the more interesting signal, though: Texas A&M's Real Estate Research Center reports that Dallas-Fort Worth is moving closer to price stabilization after an extended stretch of softening — and Fort Worth-Arlington specifically has now posted back-to-back months of year-over-year price gains. That's a genuinely different story than "the market is falling," and it's worth knowing if you've been going off national headlines instead of the local picture. (Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center)
What This Means If You're Buying
More room to negotiate than two years ago
Days on market sitting well above the frantic pace of 2021–2022 means fewer bidding wars and more sellers willing to talk price, closing costs, or repairs.
Rate buydowns are worth asking about
With rates back above 6.7%, builders in particular are leaning on buydown programs to bridge the affordability gap — it's worth having any offer's true monthly cost modeled out, not just the sticker price.
"Inventory is down" locally doesn't mean the same thing everywhere
DFW active listings actually fell year-over-year even as some other Texas metros saw supply grow — meaning desirable, correctly priced homes can still move quickly here.
What This Means If You're Selling
Pricing discipline matters more than it did in 2022
Listing at what your neighbor got two years ago is the fastest way to sit unsold and end up chasing the market down with reductions.
62 days on market is a planning number, not a warning sign
It reflects a market that's normalized back toward a historical pace — not that anything is wrong with a given listing.
Condition and presentation carry more weight in a slower market
When buyers aren't rushing, the homes that show well and are priced accurately are the ones that still move efficiently.
A Word on Mortgage Rates
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.71% as of September 3, up from 6.66% the week before and 6.50% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. Rates dipped for stretches earlier in the year before climbing back — so I wouldn't build a buying or selling plan around the assumption that a big rate drop is right around the corner. (Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates)
The more useful question: does the payment work at today's rate, and can the deal be structured to make it better — buydown, seller concessions, or otherwise?
What to Watch Heading Into Winter
Fort Worth-Arlington's back-to-back months of price gains are worth watching closely — if that momentum spreads to more of the metro, the current buyer-friendly window could close faster than the year-over-year numbers above suggest. Worth keeping in mind regardless of which side of a transaction you're planning for.
DFW is enormous, and what's happening in North Richland Hills can look very different from Mansfield, Southlake, or Denton. The metro-wide numbers are a starting point, not the whole picture.
Thinking about buying, selling, or just want a read on what's happening in your specific neighborhood? I'm happy to pull the real numbers for your area — not just the metro-wide average.
Brent Reiter — Brent Sells DFW
BK Real Estate
817-874-1602 | brent@brentsellsdfw.com
Serving Dallas-Fort Worth.